08B.Phethai 一路北上登陸印度東岸

霧峰追風者 · 2018-12-6 12:43

  強氣旋風暴
編號：BOB 08 ( 10 B )
名稱：Phethai

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2018 年 12 月 06 日 09 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 12 月 15 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 12 月 15 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 12 月 18 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：印度

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD )：55 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：55 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：993 百帕

  過去路徑圖
無

  擾動編號資料
94B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-4.1N-80.6E
20181206.0029.f18.x.vis1km_high.94BINVEST.15kts-41N-806E.100pc.jpg

20181206.0029.f18.x.vis1km_high.94BINVEST.15kts-41N-806E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

jrchang5 · 2018-12-7 17:03

JTWC於12070800Z評級Low。有部分模式指出，此系統在原地短期滯留後，將逐漸北上趨近印度東岸。

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.3N
87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070326Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 061554Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A
SMALL AREA OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM,
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT, WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5 · 2018-12-12 11:59

JTWC已於12111800Z提升評級為Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 87.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 542
NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 111552Z ASCAT PASS SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH
SPARSE CONVECTION THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS THAT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 24HRS, BEING OFFSET BY ADEQUATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM 28C TO 30C ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING 94B REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF
THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5 · 2018-12-13 11:35

JTWC於12130300Z發布TCFA。

WTIO21 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1N 88.7E TO 11.7N 82.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.4N 88.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 89.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 511
EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 122203Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15-20
KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, BUT VARY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY. MODELS
INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140300Z.//
NNNN