jrchang5

JTWC於12090600Z依然維持評級Medium。此系統目前處於一個極向流出良好、高海溫、低垂直風切的有利環境，原本低層中心裸露的情況明顯改善，最大平均風速仍維持25kts，即將登陸澳洲東北海岸。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 147.0E, APPROXIMATELY
76 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION
SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 082327Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. 05P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26 TO 28 CELSIUS, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

jrchang5

已登陸澳洲東北部，未來將進入澳洲北方海面。JTWC於12100100Z發布TCFA。

WTPS21 PGTW 100100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1S 144.6E TO 14.9S 138.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 144.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 05P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144, APPROXIMATELY 282
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.  SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. MODELS SHOW 05P TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA
THEN REGENERATING ONCE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110100Z.
//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC已於12111500Z重新發報，再度升格為Tropical Cyclone。目前所處環境垂直風切稍大，但海水熱含量高，機構與數值預報均支持會繼續發展。數值預報甚至模擬出未來的回馬槍路徑，是否如此，仍有待繼續觀察。

jrchang5

12130000Z中心位置已抵達澳洲北岸，受惠於低垂直風切、高OHC的良好環境，近中心最大風速已達75kts。預計未來將轉向偏東進行，可能再度登陸澳洲東北部地區。

霧峰追風者

風眼隱現，BoM 稍早升格澳式C3，巔峰上望澳式C4，路徑迴旋，將再度威脅威克角半島。

IDD20130
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

40:2:2:24:15S136E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, PERTH
Issued at 0135UTC 13 DECEMBER 2018

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages
given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTHERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal three south (15.3S)
longitude one hundred and thirty five decimal nine east (135.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds   : 80 knots
Central pressure: 960 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 1800 UTC 13
December.

Winds above 64 knots within 15 nautical miles of centre with very high seas and
heavy swell.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 13 December: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.2 south 136.7 east
                        Central pressure 952 hPa.
                        Winds to 90 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 14 December: Within 65 nautical miles of 15.2 south 138.6 east
                        Central pressure 949 hPa.
                        Winds to 95 knots near centre

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to nttcwc@bom.gov.au or fax to +6189203829
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0730 UTC 13 December 2018.

PERTH Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

jrchang5

已再度登陸澳洲東北部地區，近中心最大風速降為55kts，並持續減弱中。

jrchang5

JTWC於12171300Z再度評級Low。
目前此系統位於澳洲東北方近海，已變性為一冷心的副熱帶氣旋，並無明顯的對流發展。不過有部分模式指出在未來幾日，該系統可能又會轉回西北進行，回到垂直風切較低、OHC較高的環境並進一步重新發展，甚至不排除再轉化為暖心熱帶氣旋的可能。由於變數很大，仍須繼續觀察。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS TC 05P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.4S 151.0E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA.
THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A COLD-CORE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS
LOCATED UNDER A 500MB INVERTED TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER 200MB SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY
FROM THE MACKAY RADAR INDICATE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. A
170851Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVER THE EQUATORWARD SIDE AND
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CREAL
REEF, APPROXIMATELY 35NM WEST-SOUTHWEST, REVEAL SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS (30 TO 35 KNOTS) WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS, AND SLP NEAR
1002MB. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
REGENERATE AS A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER VWS AND WARMER SST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.