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zjk369|2018-11-11 04:18
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本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2018-11-11 06:39 編輯
07B SEVEN
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 10, 2018:
Location: 13.1°N 89.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
熱帶氣旋07B（七）警告＃01
發佈於10 / 2100Z
TC警告文字
WTIO31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100251NOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 89.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 89.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.6N 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.1N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.4N 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.5N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.3N 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.8N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.1N 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER TOP AND OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW DUE
TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
HAS A WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LIMITED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
TAU 48, THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE WILL SHIFT TO AN EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. ONCE THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS, THE TRACK DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE ALONG TRACK SPEED INCREASES. AFTER TAU 48,
GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. TC 07B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN INDIA PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, HAVE LARGE
VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED. THE PRIMARY OUTLIER BEING NAVGEM
WITH A SOLUTION THAT HAS THE SYSTEM TRACK MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE
REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS. DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATIONS IN ALONG
TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 100300).//NNNN
https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/io0718.tcw
WTIO51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 07B NIO 181110203347
2018111018 07B SEVEN 001 01 290 11 SATL 040
T000 131N 0894E 035 R034 055 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 136N 0885E 045 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 141N 0876E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 144N 0868E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 145N 0860E 060 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 143N 0843E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 138N 0820E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 131N 0794E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 89.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 89.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.6N 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.1N 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.4N 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.5N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.3N 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.8N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.1N 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
0718110606 78N1047E 15
0718110612 78N1041E 15
0718110618 79N1034E 15
0718110700 80N1027E 15
0718110706 79N1022E 15
0718110712 80N1018E 15
0718110718 78N1014E 20
0718110800 83N1007E 20
0718110806 89N1000E 20
0718110812 98N 993E 20
0718110818 102N 981E 20
0718110900 102N 965E 20
0718110906 106N 955E 25
0718110912 110N 945E 25
0718110918 116N 931E 25
0718111000 120N 924E 25
0718111006 123N 915E 25
0718111012 127N 905E 30
0718111018 131N 894E 35
NNNN
https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/io0718fix.txt
TPIO10 PGTW 102055
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07B (W OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS)
B. 10/2030Z
C. 13.18N
D. 88.81E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
2.5 DT. MET/PT 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DAVIS
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