0908morakot

  強烈颱風  
編號：1825 ( 30 W )
名稱：康芮 ( Kong-rey )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 09 月 22 日 21 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 09 月 28 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 09 月 29 日 14 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 10 月 07 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：南韓 慶尚南道

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：55 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：55 m/s ( 105 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：140 kts ( Cat.5 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：910 百帕
七級風半徑　　：250 公里
十級風半徑　　：080 公里

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
94W.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.160E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

周子堯@FB

JTWC評級Low，數值普遍看好強度發展

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, FEDERATED
STATES OF MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A LARGE, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT YET
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A
250245Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI REVEAL SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 KNOTS
AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A 242234Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED,
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH AND CONVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
DISTINCT LLCC WILL DEVELOP AND CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
GUAM AFTER DAY TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

06Z評級提升至Medium

  (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.3N 158.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 388
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. A 252317Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS TROUGHING WITH NO
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WINDS
CONVERGING FROM THE EAST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 15 TO
30 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE MODELS DISAGREEING ON HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

米蟲

這顆如果跟著潭美的腳步漂過去 日本就 Combo 了..... (汗

不過似乎會經過潭美留下的冷水坑(?

ben811018

EC系集
滿收斂的XD~

jef493600

ben811018 發表於 2018-9-27 10:16
EC系集
滿收斂的XD~

請教管理員如何把 手機版頁面更正為電腦版 這樣才能能夠使用點評聊天

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

傳奇@天氣人

這隻有機會挑戰山竹的強度的可能。