91W 遠洋低緯擾動

霧峰追風者 · 2018-9-10 11:05

基本資料
編號　　　　：91 W
擾動編號日期：2018 年 09 月 10 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 09 月 12 日 10 時
91W.INVEST.15kts-1003mb-5.0N-173.0E
20180910.0230.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.5N.173E.100pc.jpg

20180910.0230.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.5N.173E.100pc.jpg

霧峰追風者 · 2018-9-11 14:22

JTWC 05Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.1N
165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102224Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER IT. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

20180911.0550.himawari-8.vis.91W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.8.1N.165.8E.100pc.jpg

hunter555 · 2018-9-13 15:25

TO:甜心
基本判斷沒有多大錯誤.
最新的資料給您參考.
水溫&週邊環境.
沒有基礎就無法達成擾動初始條件.
備註:報告板主大大此單可下架.打擾了.

hunter555 · 2018-9-14 16:31

本帖最後由 hunter555 於 2018-9-14 16:35 編輯

甜心 [strike]那邊有太平洋高壓南環的乾空氣強大氣流堵著，冷水區過不了赤道的別說要上來赤道北。[/strike]恕刪
由紀錄水溫圖.可以明顯發現.120E~130E &170E~150E 南邊冷水越過赤道線.
北半球秋季~冬季區間.南半球冷水會上走.因赤道線洋流熱流環在此時會變相.
只是今年提前一個月.
已上僅供參考.