(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 173.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY
320 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. A 060932Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF DEEPENING PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD AND DEVELOP INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
