93W JMA:TD 對流零星組織鬆散登陸浙江

asus5635 · 2018-8-23 10:30

  熱帶低壓
編號： 93 W
名稱：無

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2018 年 08 月 23 日 10 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 08 月 24 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 08 月 27 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：中國浙江省

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
海平面最低氣壓： 1002 百帕

  討論帖圖片
93W.INVEST.15kts.999mb.19.3N.135.0E

以上資料來自：JMA、颱風論壇整理製作

asus5635 · 2018-8-23 10:34

本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2018-8-23 10:36 編輯

現在好像只有GFS預測到這個系統
60.track.png

結構看起來也蠻鬆散的~

t02436 · 2018-8-23 22:15

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.3N 134.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231207Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY
SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND MOST SHOW SOME DEGREE OF
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THEY ARE DIVIDED AS TO
THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-8-24 00:30

可能會襲臺？？

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-8-24 14:26

持續往西接近臺灣的趨勢

傳奇@天氣人 · 2018-8-24 17:22

JMA:TD

t02436 · 2018-8-24 20:20

06Z提升評級至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 134.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240115 MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
A 240114Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH ASYMMETRIC
WINDS, SHOWING LOWER (5-10 KNOTS) TO THE WEST AND HIGHER (15-20
KNOTS) TO THE EAST. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION AND GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO IF IT WILL INTENSIFY, HAVE INTERACTION WITH 24W, OR CONSOLIDATE
QUICKLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.