簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2018-7-29 14:32
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RE: 90W Low
JTWC 06Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
27.5N 148.9E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 282332Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS SEVERAL 15-
20 KNOT WIND BARBS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LLC.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
AREA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
90W WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, BUT VARY ON
TIMING AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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