0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 B
擾動編號日期：2018 年 07 月 21 日 00 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 07 月 00 日 00 時
96B.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.20N.89E

0908morakot

JTWC：LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.0N 88.9E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH SPARSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INDUCING HIGH (25-35 KTS) VWS WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST ENABLING THAT SPARSE CONVECTION. SSTS ARE VERY WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 96B WILL BE SHORT-LIVED POSSIBLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE INDIAN/BANGLADESHI BORDER AROUND 211200Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB

IMD稍早升格低壓BOB 03，已登陸，故JTWC取消評級

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.07.2018
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 21.07.2018 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 21.07.2018.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERIES INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL CROSSED NORTH ODISHA – WEST BENGAL
COAST BETWEEN BALASORE (42895) & DIGHA (42901) DURING 1100-1200 UTC AND LAY
CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST JULY 2018 OVER NORTH COASTAL ODISHA AND
ADJOINING COASTAL WEST BENGAL & NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 21.7
0N AND LONGITUDE 87.40E, ABOUT 55 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BALASORE (42895) AND 40 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS FOR
SOME MORE TIME AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.
AS PER THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1200 UTC OF TODAY, BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER ODISHA AND
ADJOINING AREAS OF CHHATTISGARH, NORTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND
NORTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 989 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. STATE OF SEA IS ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL.
AT 1200 UTC, DIGHA (42901) REPORTED LOWEST MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 989.3 HPA
AND A SURFACE WIND OF 110DEG / 02 KTS. BALASORE REPORTED MSLP OF 990.1 HPA AND
CALM SURFACE WIND. CHANDBALI REPORTED MSLP OF 991.8 HPA. NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA.