霧峰追風者

  中度颱風  
編號：1807 ( 09 W )
名稱：巴比侖 ( Prapiroon )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 06 月 26 日 03 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 06 月 28 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 06 月 29 日 08 時
停編日期　　：2018 年 07 月 04 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：33 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：35 m/s ( 65 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：75 kts ( Cat.1 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓：970 百帕
七級風半徑　　：150 公里
十級風半徑　　：60 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
90W.INVEST.15kts-996mb-17.8N-142.2E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

ben811018

正好遇到高壓減弱、北跳
只能沿著邊緣北上，沒有別的選擇XD

ben811018

ＥＣ系集這報看好後期發展，但時間短
而且路徑也略西修了～
看來高壓減弱的速度很關鍵！

ben811018

最新風場~
以一個低壓來說，算不錯了~

霧峰追風者

JTWC 20Z評級Low，逐漸轉向北上。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.8N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION, BROAD TURNING, AND FORMATIVE
BANDING. A 271228Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER AND LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION. A 271227Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
BUT CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM, AND A PATCH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
RECENT GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS 90W TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH
NAVGEM INTENSIFYING 90W THE MOST AS A CLOSED ORGANIZED CIRCULATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 132.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY
500 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT
POCKETS OF CONVECTION, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, AND WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING PRESENT. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY. A 272110Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
WITH DISTINCT LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). RECENT GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JMA 00Z強度升"熱帶低壓"

ben811018

９０Ｗ已經在今天進一步增強為熱帶性低氣壓，環流結構改善許多，不像前幾天那麼鬆散了，算是有點小驚喜的發展。

熱帶低壓怎麼走？
預計沿著高氣壓邊緣移動，朝西北轉北進行，
週六(30)到週日(01)間從日本琉球附近通過，也是離台灣最近的時刻，然後最快下週一直撲南韓。

對台灣會有影響嗎？
以目前資料研判，９０Ｗ會與台灣保持在４００公里以上的距離北上，影響甚微。

但是，如果他晚一點北轉，距離拉近一些，外圍雲系就可能讓基隆、宜蘭一帶偶爾飄雨。

不過，整體來說，影響相當小，對室外活動影響不大，請放心。

會成為「巴比侖」颱風嗎？
有機會，如果整合順利，最快明天就會成為颱風。

後面還可能會有颱風嗎？
以目前資料來看，七月初還會有其他颱風誕生，不過，七月有颱風很正常啦！
會不會影響台灣？連個影子都還沒有，目前就段論還言之過早。

天氣提醒
隨著高氣壓減弱，南方水氣會陸陸續續飄向台灣，天氣會變得較不穩定，南台灣下雨機會漸漸提高，而且時間不限中午過後。
中、北、東部上午晴朗，午後則是容易出現短暫雷陣雨。

注意風浪
９０Ｗ在北上的過程中，東海岸風浪會稍稍增強，請盡量避免到海邊戲水玩樂。