周子堯@FB

  熱帶低壓  
編號：96 W
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 06 月 17 日 06 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 06 月 17 日 12 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 06 月 19 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：中國 福建省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：20 kts
海平面最低氣壓：1000 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
96W.INVEST.15kts-1000mb-19.3N-113.5E


以上資料來自 : JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.6N 114.3E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 16/2245Z WINDSAT
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH DISORGANIZED BANDING ELSEWHERE. A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD OVER LAND IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

評級再提升至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 114.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY
164 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 170230Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES THERE IS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A
NARROW SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM FROM THE LLCC. A 170226Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEPICTS THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NAVGEM IS THE ONLY OUTLIER AND INDICATES
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO
THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE OTHER DYNAMIC MODELS (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM) TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND CHINA IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

補充：JMA已於04Z天氣圖升為TD

ben811018

低層環流滿完整的，但還是稍狹長一些
會不會有超乎預期的發展呢?繼續看下去~!

Jimmy

氣象局的WRF模式預報顯示96W明天下午還蠻接近台灣的，而且低壓的螺旋性特徵還蠻明顯的

不過雨量預報除了南部山區之外，其他地區倒是沒反應出比較多的累積雨量，可能預計快速通過福建沿海或內陸吧~



持續觀察看看

t02436

JMA發布W。

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 20.4N 114.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

ben811018

EC系集
預估朝福建沿海到台灣海峽間通過

Jimmy

氣象局09:50發布強風特報

陸上強風特報
熱帶性低氣壓及其外圍環流影響，今（１８日）下午起臺灣各地（含蘭嶼、綠島）沿海空曠地區、鄰近海域及澎湖、金門、馬祖易有９至１０級強陣風，沿海地區並有較大風浪，海邊活動請注意安全。