霧峰追風者

  溫帶氣旋  ｜ 熱帶風暴  
編號：07 W
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 06 月 12 日 09 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 06 月 14 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 06 月 15 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：35 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：993 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-16.0N-118.0E


以上資料來自：JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

ben811018

低層一片強盛西南風...

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.2N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FLARING
CONVECTION WITH A 120130Z MHS METOP-A MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALING THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE INVEST AREA. A
120228Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS IS INCONCLUSIVE IN IDENTIFYING A SURFACE
CIRCULATION. INVEST 93W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS, AND WARM SSTS (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS STRONGLY AGREE IN
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH IT MEETING WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OKINAWA BEFORE MAKING A SLIGHT TURN TO TRACK
JUST EAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

評級提升至Medium

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.2N 116.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.1E, APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION AND A 1201026Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE FORECASTED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL UNCERTAIN. INVEST 93W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KTS), DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AND WARM SSTS (28-29C).
GLOBAL MODELS STRONGLY AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OKINAWA BEFORE MAKING A SLIGHT TURN TO TRACK
JUST EAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

t02436

發布TCFA

ben811018

反而比較注意廣東近海那邊的渦漩...比較具威脅

t02436

JMA已標註為溫帶低壓

LOW 998 HPA AT 23N 123E ENE 10 KT.

JTWC持續判定為副熱帶低壓

WP, 93, 2018061300,   , BEST,   0, 213N, 1205E,  30,  996, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1000,  130,  50,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 93, 2018061306,   , BEST,   0, 217N, 1218E,  30,  996, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1000,  130,  60,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 93, 2018061312,   , BEST,   0, 220N, 1228E,  30,  996, SD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1000,  120,  60,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

asus5635

模式分析出這隻系統應該是具有熱帶性質
JMA應該只是單純標註為低壓區，而非溫帶低壓