0908morakot

  熱帶低壓  
編號：04 W
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 05 月 03 日 14 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 05 月 11 日 03 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 05 月 12 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 05 月 05 日 06 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：35 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：1004 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
97W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.6.2N.153E


以上資料來自：JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 13Z評級Low。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N
153.8E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
TURNING IN THE MIDLEVELS ABOVE A BROAD LLC. A 031124Z METOP-A ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A REGION OF SHARP LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING, WITH THE MIDLEVEL
MESOCYCLONE DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A BAND OF
LOW (10-15KT) VWS WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH. SSTS ARE WARM (27-
29C) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INTERACTION BETWEEN 97W AND 96W WITH GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT VARY ON
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

r96340

先前位於北緯８．７度，東經１５３．０度之對流區域（觀測編號９７Ｗ），當前位於北緯１１．０度，東經１５１．８度，即在關島東南東方８１５公里之海面上。動態色調強化衛星雲圖顯示系統具一狹長、偏弱之低層中心；一５日７時之ＭＨＳ　ＭＥＴＯＰ－Ａ　８９兆赫雷達回波圖指出系統擁有少許對流。
９７Ｗ當前位於一垂直風切較低（１０至１５節）之狹帶中，北側垂直風切較強，給予系統良好之流出管道。海面當前溫度偏高（攝氏２７至２９度），但隨系統向北移動，其將受較冷海面溫度之影響，使其發展受到抑制。
由於系統向北移動時將進入較為不佳之發展環境，全球模式大致相同地預期系統將有一偏弱、速度較慢之發展狀況。
預期系統當前之平均風力可達１５至２０節；海平面最低氣壓接近１００８百帕。
對此系統於接下來２４小時發展成為一顯著熱帶氣旋之可能性評級保持為【低】。

聯合颱風警報中心　發布於２０１８年５月５日１４時

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.7N 153.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED, WEAKLY DEFINED LLC WITH A 042337Z MHS METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A BAND OF LOW (10-15KT) VWS WITH HIGHER
VALUES TO THE NORTH AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SSTS ARE WARM (27-
29C) HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SSTS WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SLIGHT WEAK, SLOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO POOR
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

周子堯@FB

JMA預測有機會在07/21時，升格為熱帶性低壓。但目前因北側風切過大，發展不易，能不能順利發展還是未知數。

NET

裸奔，高低層分離了。 (2018 05 07 0050Z)

ben811018

貌似會有曇花一現的發展



發展環境不好...

zxc

JTWC評級為High

周子堯@FB

JMA升格為TD；JTWC發布TCFA.

TPPN11 PGTW 110312

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (NE OF GUAM)

B. 11/0250Z

C. 16.97N

D. 151.06E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 75NM FROM
LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   10/2311Z  16.85N  151.55E  MMHS
   11/0010Z  16.80N  151.28E  MMHS


   LOWE