(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.9S 87.2E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221552Z 89GHZ AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH SOME
ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS IN THE LOW-
MODERATE RANGE (10-20KTS), WITH HIGHER SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) IN THE SOUTHERN IO AND ARE SUPPORTIVE. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF INVEST 96S DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM IN THE 18-48HR TIME FRAME AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THE
OVERALL PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT IN 24HRS IS LOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
BoM 認為有機會進入90E以東發展
A weak low lies near 11S 87E. During Friday the low could move southwest into the region (east of 90E) well to the southwest of the Cocos Keeling Islands. The system is likely to be weak and is a only a Very Low risk for the region.
During Saturday and Sunday there is a slight chance the system could develop whilst moving southwest over open waters well to the south of the Cocos Keeling Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low
There are no other significant lows in the Western Region at present and none are expected to develop over the next three days.
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