abc123nba

雖然我不知道,樓上的判斷依據何來[流汗表情...]
但以目前的資料研判,約3月28日左右今年首個春颱確實有可能被命名

周子堯@FB

假使生成，生成地究竟離赤道多近，值得關注!!

ben811018

歷年平均，３月約有０.３個颱風形成，
就算有形成，也不一定都會影響台灣，
所以囉.....沒什麼好恐的

目前在西太低緯度洋面有個熱帶擾動96W正在雲釀，
目前各家數值預報都滿看好他的發展，訊號很明確，
很有機會在下週初成為第３號「鯉魚」颱風。

而多數數值預報都「穩定」認為，
會採取「西→西北→北→東北」拋物線走法，
主因是主導颱風走向的副熱帶高氣壓還太弱（畢竟才三月），
要摸到台灣真的很拚，非常拚，大家不用擔心！

不過，他在北上的過程中，
東海岸要小心長浪（瘋狗浪）發生！
(圖為GFS系集)　
----------

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z再度發佈"TCFA"，數值看好發展。

WTPN21 PGTW 230530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 148.0E TO 6.1N 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.3N 147.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.7N 147.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 265
NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 222330Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN AND A SMALL
AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 221151Z ASCAT
PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN, BUT 20-25 KNOT WINDS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL
INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240530Z.//
NNNN

zjk369

WTPN22 PGTW 230530MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 148.0E TO 6.1N 143.6EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 230300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 4.3N 147.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 147.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.3N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222330Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING IN AND A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 221151Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING IN, BUT 20-25 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 240530Z.//NNNN
TPPN10 PGTW 230250 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF GUAM)B. 23/0230ZC. 5.00ND. 146.20EE. FIVE/HMWRI8F. N/AG. IR/EIR/VIS/MSIH. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE   LEMBKE

ben811018

低層環流雖然仍散亂，但也將慢慢整合起來


西風系統依然活躍，副高勢力弱，位置也很東
轉向機會很高...

霧峰追風者

JMA 上午8時升格熱帶低壓，並直接發佈"GW"。

熱帯低気圧
平成30年03月24日10時15分 発表

<24日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        カロリン諸島
中心位置        北緯 4度35分(4.6度)
東経 146度20分(146.3度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1006hPa
最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<25日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        カロリン諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 5度55分(5.9度)
東経 142度05分(142.1度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

ben811018

目前在關島南方海面有個熱帶擾動９６Ｗ正在發展，
接下來將進入整合階段，未來幾天會逐漸增強，
有機會在未來２４時前後今年第３號「鯉魚」颱風，

目前來看，因為太平洋高氣壓偏弱，
之後將轉向東北，要接近台灣的機會很低，
請大家不用擔心，有任何最新動態，
#天氣特急 也會立即通知大家！