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霧峰追風者|2018-3-16 03:46
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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-16 05:55 編輯
JTWC 18Z率先升格熱帶氣旋，編號15S，巔峰暫時上望80kts。
WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150451ZMAR18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.7S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.5S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.4S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.1S 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4S 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.0S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.9S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
INFRARED LOOP AND A 151852Z 37GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENISTY IF 35
KNOT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE
SYSTEM OF 32 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE
ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THEY SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY
RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
LAND INTERACTION WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS BETWEEN
MAINLAND AUSTRALIA AND THE TIWI ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 AT WHICH
TIME THE TRACK DIRECTION BECOMES MORE WESTWARD AS TC 15S MOVES OUT
INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY
AFTER TAU 36 AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEAL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THESE
VARIATIONS IN TRACK LOCATIONS CAUSE EXTENSIVE VARIATIONS IN BOTH
ALONG TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150500). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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