簽到天數: 1765 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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zjk369|2018-3-12 22:54
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本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2018-3-12 23:05 編輯
WTPS31 PGTW 121500MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120251ZMAR2018//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 159.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 159.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.3S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 20.3S 157.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 21.5S 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.9S 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 25.8S 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 29.0S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ---REMARKS:121500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 159.7E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 497 NMWEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HASRAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FRAGMENTED BANDS - MOSTLY EMANATING FROM THENORTH - COALESCED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIALPOSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A LOWREFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 121054Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASSWITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENTDVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. THE CYCLONEIS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING STR TO THESOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OFLOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG DUALOUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C TO31C. AS THE STR CONTINUES TO BUILD, TC 13P WILL TRACK MORESOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TOROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN RECURVESOUTHEASTWARD. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING IN-PHASE WITH THESTORM MOTION, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVESPOLEWARD. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILLPREVAIL AND PROMOTE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS AT TAU24-36. AFTERWARD, AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR, STRONG VWS ANDCOOLING SSTS WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL AND ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 96, TC13P WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGSAT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 120300).//NNNN
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