周子堯@FB

  熱帶低壓  
編號　　　　：98 P (08 F)
擾動編號日期：2018 年 02 月 03 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
98P.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-19.0S-179.0E

t02436

FMS編號08F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD08F CENTRE {[1000HPA}] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S
AND 178.0E AT 030600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 22Z評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
21.9S 179.3W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. A 071855Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LLC WITH ITS CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED AND A
POCKET OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 070906Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

一個小環流，分析到T2.0，看雲圖有再捲眼的感覺。

TXPS29 KNES 080029
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98P)

B.  07/2330Z

C.  21.7S

D.  178.5W

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0.
MET = 1.5 AND PT = 2.0.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIBLER

周子堯@FB

JTWC 06z將評級升為Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.7S 179.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 179.3W, APPROXIMATELY
170 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIGHT, FLARING CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER THE LLCC. 98P
RESIDES IN A REGION OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND WARM (>28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 98P WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD IN AN
ARCING TRAJECTORY IN THE EARLY TAUS AS IT FOLLOWS TC 09P. HOWEVER
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WHETHER 98P WILL DEVELOP ON ITS OWN OR BE
ABSORBED INTO TC 09P AROUND TAU 48-72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 05z發布TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.7S 179.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 180.0E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 092103Z AMSU METOP-A IMAGE SHOW  A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. THE FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
ANIMATED LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC SURROUNDED BY CONVECTION.
UPPER ANALYSIS DEPICT 98P BEING LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 98P OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 98P WILL TRACK ON AN EASTERN TRAJECTORY
IN THE EARLY TAUS AS IT FOLLOWS TC 09P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 取消TCFA ，並降評為Medium

1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100230),
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2S 180.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS REMNANTS OF A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P HAS MOVED
INTO AN UNFAVORABLE AREA OF HIGH (30-35 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD
09P AND BECOME ENGULFED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. IN
THE VIEW OF THE DECAYING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.