霧峰追風者

  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號：05 F→ 06 F ( 08 P )
名稱：Fehi

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 26 日 16 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 01 月 28 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 01 月 29 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 02 月 01 日 09 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：45 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：986 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
93P.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-13.2S-155.7E


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

alu

升為MEDIUM


B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.9S 156.3E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING IN. A 261127Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, BUT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH BANDING AND CONVECTION PRESENT. A 261043Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND A WESTERLY WIND SURGE TO THE NORTH CREATING A REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), BUT HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS A MEDIUM.//

霧峰追風者

目前中心有在爆對流，12Z風速來到30kts。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z發佈TCFA，有機會成為南太新風季首旋。

WTPS21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7S 156.4E TO 18.8S 160.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 156.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 156.8E, APPROXIMATELY
755NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261952 F-17 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 93P IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH BOTH EQUATOR AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN 93P OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK IN A SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 272100Z.
//
NNNN

FMS 編號05F，定位跟93P比較接近。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTER {[998HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S
160.2E AT 260900UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO EAST. OVERALL
ORGANISATIONS HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEST 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

霧峰追風者

TPPS10 PGTW 271851
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (S OF SOLOMAN ISLANDS)
B. 27/1800Z
C. 15.52S
D. 159.33E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   RICHARDSON

TXPS27 KNES 271841
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B.  27/1730Z
C.  15.9S
D.  160.3E
E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...VERY LARGE CDO WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UNCERTAIN
IF CLOSED LLCC EXISTS, CENTER BASED ON CSC. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT
0.2 BROAD BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ

霧峰追風者

FMS 重新分析，編號"06F"。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 280025 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F CENTRE {[994HPA]} WAS RE-ANALYSED NEAR
16.0S 160.0E AT 272300UTC MOVING SOUTH - SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8 VIS IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT PASS.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP
CONVERCTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.
OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF
AN UPPER TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

JTWC 00Z風速達到35kts，看看稍後會不會升格。

t02436

風場掃描合格，08P成為南半球新風季南太平洋區首旋，趨向紐西蘭。

---

** WTPS11 NFFN 280000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 280148 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 160.2E
AT 280000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD06F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF LLCC. ORGANISATION
HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BY THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.4 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AND MT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.


POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 17.5S 161.2E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 18.7S 162.0E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 20.5S 162.9E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 22.9S 163.5E MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 280800 UTC.

霧峰追風者

FMS 不再看好命名..

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 281405 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 161.1E
AT 281200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI 8 EIR AND IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  TD06F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  

LLCC SUSPECTED TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BY THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 19.1S 161.9E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 21.0S 162.7E MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 23.5S 163.2E MOV SSE AT 11 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 26.5S 163.4E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 282000 UTC.