霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：05-20172018 ( 07 S )
名稱：Cebile


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 24 日 03 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 01 月 27 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 01 月 28 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 02 月 10 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國氣象局 (MFR)：100 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：120 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：944 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
91S-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-11.5S-78E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z直接評級Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.2S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTER. A 250124Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. A 250334Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER BUT STRONGER (20-25 KNOT) WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS), HOWEVER, IT HAS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT
ARE SPLIT ON WHEN INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING STRENGTH WILL OCCUR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 01Z發佈TCFA，機構看好發展。

WTXS21 PGTW 260130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 81.5E TO 12.5S 86.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 82.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 585NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
252250Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 91S
IS CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH (25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT VALUES
DROP OFF RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH, WHERE THE SYSTEM IS HEADING.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STRONG AND BEGINNING TO FORM A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS PREDICT 91S REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
TRAVELS TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF NOT, DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE LATER TAUS AFTER 91S ROUNDS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270130Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

MFR 編號熱帶擾動第5號，但還沒開始發報。

The basin is in a Monsoon Trough (MT) pattern along 11S. Deep convective activity is weak to moderate, with the exception of the area around 10.2S / 82.5E.

Tropical disturbance 05/20172018 in the eastern part of the MT :
An elongated clockwise circulation can be located at 10.2S / 82.5E within the MT. This circulation is contracting and the 0357UTC ASCAT swath allows to have a partial estimate of this circulation. It present for this moment, winds of the order of 20kt, reaching 25kt within the monsoon feeding. The MSLP in the center is analyzed by the majority of the deterministic numerical models at around 1000hPa, but no surrounding observation data can validate this value. The easterly shear is analyzed at 25kt by the CIMSS, which is confirmed by the location in the western semi circle of the deep convection. With a track to the east-southeast, the tropical disturbance 05/20172018 should benefit from more favorable atmospherics conditions with the disappearance of the shear and the persistence of a good upper-level divergence. The model guidance suggest a significant cyclogenesis risk Sunday about this tropical disturbance.

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes high on Saturday, within the Eastern region of our basin, and very high on Sunday.

t02436

JTWC升格07S

霧峰追風者

FMS 06Z強度升熱帶低壓，巔峰上望強熱帶氣旋。

WTIO31 FMEE 270616
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/5/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 5
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.3 S / 85.2 E
(ONZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 6 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 27/01/2018 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 28/01/2018 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 84.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 28/01/2018 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
48H: 29/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
60H: 29/01/2018 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 30/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2018 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
120H: 01/02/2018 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.0+
DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES, L'EFFET COMBINE DU RENFORCEMENT
NOCTURNE DE LA CONVECTION ET LE DÉBUT D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICALE DE VENT D'EST A PERMIS A LA CONVECTION DE SE
REFORMER AU DESSUS DU CANTRE DE LA CIRCULATION. lES DERNEIRES DONNEES
MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 0057Z ET AMSU DE 0219Z MONTRENT QUE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE N'EST PRESENTE QUE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST.
LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS L'EFFET DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR GENERER PAR LA PUISSANTE DORSALE PRESENTE AU NIVEAU DE
L'EQUATEUR. CE DÉPLACEMENT A RENFORCE L'EFFET DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ESTNORD-EST
PRESENTE SUR LE SYSTEME.
LA DORSALE AU SUD S'EST RENFORCE ALORS QUE LE FLUX D'OUEST LE LONG DE
L'EQUATEUR FAIBLIT, LE SYSTEME RALENTIT. SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE QUI SE
RECONSTRUIT DANS L'EST, IL EST PREVU PRENDRE EN COURS DE JOURNEE UN
DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DE SUD PUIS DU SUD-OUEST.
LE LONG DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, L'EFFET DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE SE FAIT
MOINS SENTIR, PERMETTANT AU SYSTEME DE S'INTENSIFIER
PROGRESSIVEMENT.dIMANCHE LE SYSTEME VIENT SE POSITIONNER SOUS L'AXE DE
LA DORSALE, BENEFICIANT ALORS DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE RRIVE PAR LE sUD-OUEST FAISANT
RALENTIR LE SYSTEME DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, PUIS CELUI-CI VA SE DEPLACER
LENTEMENT VERS L'OUEST VOIR L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET
CONCURRENT DE DEUX FLUS DIRECTEUR ISSU DE LA DORSALE PECITEE, ET D'UNE
SECONDE DORSALE SITUE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME.DURANT CETTE PERIODE, LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMMENT BENEFICIANT DES MARDI DE
DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION.

JTWC 06Z強度升TS。

Meow

命名Cebile，上看75kt。

WTIO30 FMEE 271826

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CEBILE)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 85.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: SW: 150 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/28 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 84.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/28 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/29 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/29 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/30 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/30 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/31 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/02/01 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS A STRONG BOOST IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LIGHTLY SHEARED CONFIGURATION IS WEAKENING AND PROGRESSIVELY BECOMES IN A CDO CONFIGURATION DURING LATEST MOMENTS. THIS SITUATED THEN THE CENTER IN IMMEDIATE EDGE OF THE MOST DEEP CONVECTION. THE 1527UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOW TO VALIDATE WINDS REACHING UP 35KT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY, SYSTEM 05 HAS NAMED CEBILE BY THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 1700UTC.

CEBILE TRACKS NOW SOUTH AND IS PLACED UNDER A SHEAR ABOUT 15KT, ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS DATA, WHICH IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD, ACCELERATING. THEN THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-WESTERN PART WILL SLOW THE MOVEMENT OF CEBILE. AND IN THE MIDDLE OF WEEK, THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN ITS SOUTH-EAST PART ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGE INCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK UP TO MONDAY MAINLY DU TO THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, AND ALSO ON THE AREA WHERE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STOP, THE RESTART EASTWARD.

ALONG THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT WEAKEN MORE FRANKLY. HOWEVER, CEBILE TRANSITS ON AREAS WHERE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LESS. THIS IS ALL THE MORE TRUE DURING THE SLOW DOWN OF CEBILE'S TRACK WHICH SHOULD INDUCE THE STOPPING OF THE INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT OF THE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST.

霧峰追風者

分析到3.0

TPXS10 PGTW 271830
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN)
B. 27/1800Z
C. 11.87S
D. 84.43E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS A 2.5. PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   27/1257Z  11.52S  84.93E  SSMS

   RICHARDSON

TXXS27 KNES 271811
TCSSIO
A.  07S (NONAME)
B.  27/1730Z
C.  11.7S
D.  84.9E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT
H.  REMARKS...THE 1610Z AMSU PASS AIDED IN ASSESSING 0.6 CURVED BANDING
UNDERNEATH THE COLD OVERCAST, RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5 AND
PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    27/1233Z 11.4S 84.8E WINDSAT

...RAMIREZ