霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號：04-20172018 ( 99 S )
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 14 日 21 時
升格熱低日期：2018 年 01 月 15 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 01 月 26 日 02 時
登陸地點　　：莫三比克 楠普拉

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國氣象局 (MFR)：30 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：30 kts
海平面最低氣壓：999 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
99S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.14.2S.42.6E

zjk369

t02436

編號熱帶擾動第4號，看好登陸前命名。

** WTIO22 FMEE 150621 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 41.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REACHING 25 KT REACHING LOCALLY 30 KT OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
15.0 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS=

霧峰追風者

JTWC 08Z評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION  (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.2S 42.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP
99S AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

MFR 強度升熱帶低壓，還是有機會登陸前命名。

霧峰追風者

看起來要登陸了，18Z應該是最後希望..

霧峰追風者

中心登陸，無緣命名。


JTWC 01Z取消評級。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.0S 40.7E, IS OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

霧峰追風者

路徑峰迴路轉，將回到莫三比克海峽，JTWC 21Z再次評級Low，後期趨向馬達加斯加。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.4S 39.5E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND A 191926Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ABOVE AN
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT WHEN 99S REACHES OPEN WATER. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION AS 99S TRACKS BACK OVER WATER, BUT ARE SPLIT
ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF 99S DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
MADAGASCAR IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.