霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：03-20172018 ( 06 S )
名稱：Berguitta

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 01 月 10 日 22 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 01 月 13 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 01 月 13 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 01 月 22 日 09 時
登陸地點　　：毛里求斯島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國氣象局 (MFR)：90 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：100 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓：940 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
97S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10.8S.69E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.5S 70.3E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP
IN. A 101400Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH
SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT AND LIGHTER
CONVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS), HOWEVER THIS IS OFFSET BY HIGH
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 13Z評級提升Medium

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3S 69.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 68.6E, APPROXIMATELY
427 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 111122Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVELS STRONG, FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED
TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIFFLUENCE BEING OFFSET BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS)
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF IMPROVING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30 C) ARE ALSO
PRESENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH, BUT NOT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z發佈TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 120130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 69.5E TO 18.4S 64.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 69.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 68.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. AN 112059Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-30 CELSIUS). AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VALUES OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130130Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

GFS和EC數值目前都看好發展。

霧峰追風者

MFR 編號 03-20172018,巔峰暫時上望強熱帶氣旋。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z升格TS，編號"06S"，巔峰上望95KTS。

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 66.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 66.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 17.5S 65.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 17.7S 64.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.6S 63.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 17.4S 62.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 17.0S 62.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.3S 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 18.9S 60.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 121717Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S
WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH
TAU 48. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 06S
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEGINNING NEAR TAU 96. DUE TO THE LACK OF A
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER
TAU 96 THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120130). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (JOYCE) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.//
NNNN

Meow

升格熱帶低壓，並上看110kt，非常看好發展。

WTIO30 FMEE 130610

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20172018
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2018/01/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 65.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: NW: 170

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/13 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/14 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/14 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/15 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/15 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/16 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/17 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/18 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST NIGHT, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STRONG AND HAS MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. 0225Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION REMAINS ESSENTIALLY LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BUT STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ACCORDING WITH THE 0426Z ASCAT, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30KT.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM SUNDAY, IT SHOULD BUMP INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP IN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, AND THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY, AS THE RIDGE SHIFTED EASTWARD, A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ACCORDING WITH THIS PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHOULD BEND PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PHILISOPHY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS A LARGE DISPERSION ON THE LOCATION AND THE TIMMING OF THE SUCCESSIVE CURVES. THIS ADVISORY FAVORS THE ECMWF FORECAST WITH A SYSTEM THAT KEEP ON TRACK THE LONGER NORTHWESTWARD.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. IT EVOLVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A LOW VERTICAL WIND WINSHEAR. FROM SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLERWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS.

THE NEXT WEEK, A MATURE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE IN THE VICINITY OF MASCASRENES ISLANDS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.