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t02436|2018-1-4 15:05
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** WTIO30 FMEE 040638 ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/1/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1 (AVA)
2.A POSITION 2018/01/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 51.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/04 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/05 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/05 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/06 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/06 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/07 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/08 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/09 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 47.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO CURVED BAND
PATTERN, AND IN THE LAST HOURS THE SYSTEM SHOWS A COLD CDO STRUCTURE
ATTESTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS ALWAYS A WEAK EAST-SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT.
TODAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD ALLOW
TO THE SYSTEM TO KEEP ON ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS TRACK,
A LANDFALL OVER THE MALAGASY COASTLINE, NEAR TAMATAVE REMAINS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, AVA IS
FORECASTED TO RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD BEHING THE FAST RIDGE AND TOWARD A
NEW MID-TOPOSPHERIC TROUGH. A LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE ABILITY
OF THE SYSTEM TO COME BACK OVER THE OCEAN FROM SATURDAY. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CEP/GFS CONSENSUS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDFALL WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. BUT A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN. MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IS NOW
FORECAST AT THE LANDFALL PERIOD. FROM SATURDAY, THE TRACK WILL BE
DECISIVE FOR THE FORECAST INTENSITY. IN CASE OF PREMATURE EXIT OVER
OCEAN, AVA MAY ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ONLY THE
DIMINUTION OF THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL UNDERNEATH AND A MODERATE
NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD PREVENT THE
SYSTEM INTENSITY. A TRACK FOR LONGER OVER LAND WILL LIMIT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF REINTENSIFICATION.
THE PERIPHERAL THUNDERSTORMS BANDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM ARE
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ON THE MALAGASY COASTLINES AND GOING
ON OVER THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO.=
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