蜜露

最近看到的強度 , 很驚人..  而且還是12月份 .



其實過去12月也不是沒有Cat.5

1955 Ruth
1989 Jack
1990 Russ  
1997 Paka
2014 Hagupit

都是著名有Cat.5的潛力 .

abc123nba

蜜露 發表於 2017-12-16 21:34
最近看到的強度 , 很驚人..  而且還是12月份 .

永遠不要相信GFS的預測強度,尤其在預報時間差越大或出現8XX的氣壓值時,若能成真每年都要有十個海燕

那張是13日的預測圖,預測時間是240小時後,所以這時GFS預報的氣旋強度可信度可以說無限趨近於0了


今年西太環境場太差,縱使已經到了年底也沒好轉的趨勢,

從環境分析圖看,無論97W往北往西,風切都太大,整合發展後的強度推測不會太高

abc123nba

NCEP GFS

1506


1606





EC
1512



1600

今天各大機構數值對於97W的未來發展及路徑不確定性
反而比昨天來的高,預測路徑也變得詭異了不少

原本前幾天的穩定西進或西北進的穩定預報已經在半天內突然大逆轉
EC最新12Z主觀預報更是直接在3天後賜死了97W

向來對氣旋成形比較敏感樂觀的GFS則預測97W將一分為二在菲東和遠洋各自發展最後形成雙颱

不說路徑和強度,這下已經連能不能成為一個颱風都懸了......,

這突然的預報大改...看來只能繼續觀察下去啦

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級降低至LOW

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 142.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY
364 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 172353Z AMSU METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED AND
ELONGATED LLC WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
LLC. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINING IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM
RESTS IN AN AREA OF WARM SSTS (30-31 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING THE
DISTURBANCES FUELING PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN MIXED SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN CONSOLIDATION WITH NO AGREEMENT ON TRACK MOTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW

JMA 15時降格低壓區

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.

abc123nba

97W應該會在24小時內遭重新定位
或遭撤編另編另一新擾動98W

而這個在今天重新整合完成的系統
則有機會在未來四五天左右在菲南島嶼附近升格成為颱風

zjk369

JMA12月20號09時二次升熱帶低壓

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級提升Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 138.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 50
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN TO AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. A 200054Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM WITH 10-15 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY FAVORABLE, WITH AN ELONGATED REGION OF
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT IS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE MSI LOOP. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
AND GENERALLY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

很快的...JTWC 06Z發佈"TCFA"，逐漸接近菲律賓。