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霧峰追風者|2017-12-2 14:54
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JTWC 05Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5S
161.9E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 020455Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE BROAD AREA OF MIDLEVEL TURNING WITH NO DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
98P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SURROUNDING AREA. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT 98P HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU
36 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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