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highhigh|2017-11-9 22:46
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引用JTWC #3報下面的說明:
C. AFTER TAU 72, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO TWO DISTINCT GROUPS
WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE FIRST GROUP
(AFUM, UKMO, HWRF, ECMF AND EEMN) WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
AND TRACK THE REMNANTS SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
SECOND GROUP (AEMN, AVNO, CTCX, NVGM AND UEMN) DEPICT A SLOW
POLEWARD TRACK. IN GENERAL, THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CHINA AFTER TAU 72, WHICH WILL SERVE
TO WEAKEN THE STR AND LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TRACK SLOW-DOWN. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS A SLOW POLEWARD MOTION OVER HAINAN ISLAND
AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY FLOW AND TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DUE TO THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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看樣子TAU72後預測比較沒把握,因為文中所提兩組的單位看法不同.不過那時已接近海南島或越南陸地,最終也就是這兩個目的之一吧. |
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