霧峰追風者

  熱帶風暴  
編號：18 L
名稱：Philippe

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 10 月 24 日 07 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 10 月 28 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 10 月 30 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：古巴
　　　　　　　美國 佛羅里達州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
國家颶風中心(NHC)：50 kts
海平面最低氣壓：995 毫巴

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
93L-INVEST-30kts-1006mb-14N-83W
NHC : 10%

1. An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua.  This broad disturbance is producing widespread
cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
interaction with the high terrain of Central America.  Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
system moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

NHC 00Z展望提升至40%。

1. Cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from northern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras northeastward across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica
to eastern Cuba are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Strong upper-level
winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions
less favorable by Sunday.   Regardless of development, this system
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two.
These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of
South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern
Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 18Z展望提升至80%，型態轉好。

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning
to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or
Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday.
Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman
Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern
Bahamas later today or tonight.  Interests in the Florida Keys and
South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to
investigate this system.

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and
portions of Cuba during the next day or two.  Rainfall is also
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas
Saturday night and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

霧峰追風者

NHC 21Z升格潛在熱帶氣旋18L，有機會在今天命名，將直襲古巴。

000
WTNT43 KNHC 272045
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined center. In
fact, the aircraft data and satellite imagery suggest that there are
multiple circulations embedded within a broader circulation at this
time. Given the lack of a well-defined center, the system is not a
tropical cyclone, but since tropical storm conditions are expected
to affect Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas in the next 24 to 36
hours, advisories are being initiated on the system as a potential
tropical cyclone at this time.

The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on aircraft data, with
these winds found well south of the broad circulation center.
However, NOAA buoy 42057 also reported a peak 1-minute wind of 31 kt
earlier today. Aircraft data suggest that the central pressure is
around 1006 mb. The system is situated in a low-shear environment
and over warm waters, so some slow strengthening is expected in the
first 24 hours before the system reaches Cuba. The official forecast
follows the trend of the intensity consensus in showing a peak of
around 45 kt at 36 and 48 hours before the system is absorbed by an
approaching cold front in 60-72 hours.

Given the lack of a well-defined center, the initial position is and
the initial motion of 330/05 are highly uncertain. A faster
northward motion should begin soon as the disturbance begins to
recurve ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level trough moving into
the southeastern United States. This trough should cause a faster
northeastward acceleration at 24 through 48 hours. The track model
guidance is in generally good agreement on the overall scenario,
with more along than cross track spread. The NHC forecast leans
toward a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and is a little slower
than the current multi-model consensus. Not surprisingly, given the
disorganized initial state of the system, the track forecast
uncertainty is larger than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 17.5N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  28/0600Z 19.1N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H  28/1800Z 21.7N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  29/0600Z 24.6N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  29/1800Z 28.0N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  30/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

霧峰追風者

NHC 命名"Philippe"，逐漸增強，即將登陸佛州。

000
WTNT43 KNHC 282052
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Satellite images, radar data from Cuba and Key West, and surface
observations indicate the depression has turned northward over the
past few hours, and has also strengthened into a tropical storm.
The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a surface observation of
35 kt in a brief squall from Grand Cayman at 1444Z, a recent AMSU
estimate of 37 kt, and average Key West Doppler radar velocities of
40 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft just north of the Cuban coast; the
latter data equates to an approximate surface wind speed of 36 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/25 kt based on radar data and
high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery over the past 2-3
hours. The low-level wind flow pattern for the next 6 hours or so is
forecast to be complex, with a new non-tropical surface low having
recently formed about 100 nmi west of Key West, Florida. This
feature appears to have developed beneath an upper-level jet
entrance region ahead of an approaching cold front.  The global,
regional, and even the convective-scale models are now showing the
center of Philippe moving general northward across the Straits of
Florida this evening and merging with the non-tropical low around
0000Z. After the merger over Florida Bay, the various models are in
good agreement on Philippe moving northeastward to
east-northeastward across extreme southern Florida or the Florida
Keys overnight as the cyclone is accelerated ahead of the
aforementioned frontal system and strong mid-/upper-level trough.
After reaching the northwestern Bahamas by 1200Z Sunday morning,
Philippe is forecast to accelerate further towards the northeast at
forward speeds of 30-35 kt, by Sunday afternoon and evening,
remaining well offshore of the Carolinas. By 36 hours, Philippe is
expected to pass about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern
United States, and gradually getting pulled north-northeastward up
the east side of a powerful baroclinic low that is forecast to
develop near Cape Hatteras and move northward near the U.S. east
coast. The NHC track guidance is in reasonable agreement on this
developing track scenario, and lies between the GFS model, which
takes Philippe across the Florida Keys, and the ECMWF model, which
moves the cyclone farther north over South Florida.

The vertical wind shear affecting Philippe is expected to remain
favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours, along
with an additional baroclinic boost from the aforementioned
upper-level jet maximum. By 36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing
associated with the approaching frontal system are forecast to
induce additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with
the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours.
Dissipation or absorption by a larger extratropical low is expected
by 72 hours when the system is located over the cold waters of the
North Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across
the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest
winds are expected to remain east and southeast of the center.
However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur
in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast
Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains
in effect for these areas.

2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat
from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized
flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 23.0N  82.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 26.0N  80.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 31.5N  75.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 36.6N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 42.0N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

t02436

21Z判定併入鋒面。

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Remnants Of Philippe Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

During the past few hours, strong vertical wind shear in excess of
50 kt, plus merger with a cold front, has taken its toll on
Philippe's previously well-defined low-level circulation. The system
has become elongated north-to-south within the frontal zone, and a
new low-level center may have developed about 150 nmi farther north
along the frontal boundary near NOAA buoy 41002. Now that Philippe
has lost any tropical or subtropical characteristics due to merger
with a synoptic-scale cold front, the system is declared to have
dissipated.

Much of the latent heat and deep convection associated with
Philippe's remnants will likely be drawn into a larger extratropical
low pressure that is developing near the outer banks of North
Carolina, aiding in that intensification process. Although the
developing powerful low near the Outer Banks is not directly
associated with Philippe, interests along the mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coasts should closely monitor forecast products
issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center, and your local National Weather Service forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 31.0N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN