霧峰追風者

  低壓  
編號：BOB 05 ( 98 B )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 10 月 16 日 09 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 10 月 20 日 21 時
登陸地點　　：印度 奧里薩邦

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：25 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：25 kt
海平面最低氣壓   ：994 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料
98B-INVEST-15kts-994mb-15N-90.2E


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z評級LOW

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.4N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 16/1317Z AMSU-B
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED LIMITED BANDING, WEAK STRUCTURE, AND ONLY
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. A 16/1509Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED
IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 15-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW
CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS IS FUELING THE REGION OF
MAXIMUM CONVECTION. 98B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KT) WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LEADING TO
HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH. SST VALUES
ARE >28C, WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAY
OF BENGAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z評級提升MEDIUM

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 87.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 345
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 17/1246Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED CENTER WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 17/0342Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED IN THE SW QUADRANT, AND 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS IS
FUELING THE REGION OF MAXIMUM CONVECTION. 98B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KT) WITH HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
(>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTH, BUT MORE FAVORABLE (<15 KT)
VALUES TO THE NORTH. SST VALUES ARE >28C, WITH HIGHER VALUES TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

IMD 編號BOB 05，影響印度東北部。

BULLETIN NO. : 01 (BOB 05/2017)
TIME OF ISSUE: 0900 HOURS IST DATED: 19.10.2017

Sub: Depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal
Latest observations, radar and satellite imageries indicate that a depression has formed over
westcentral Bay of Bengal. It lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 19
th October, 2017 near
Latitude 16.5 N and Longitude 86.5 E, about 470 km south of Chandbali and 370 km southsoutheast
of Puri. The system is very likely to move initially north-northwestwards and cross Odisha
coast between Puri and Chandbali around mid-night of today/early morning of tomorrow, the 20th
October 2017. It is likely to intensify into a deep depression during next 18 hours.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z評級降低LOW，即將登陸印度。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 86.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AMOUNT
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 191504Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, BUT SHOWS NO DISTINCT BANDING. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS WITH LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION LIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

霧峰追風者

IMD 判定登陸印度。

THE DEPRESSION MOVED NORTHWARDS AND CROSSED ODISHA COAST CLOSE TO
PARADEEP DURING 1400-1500 UTC AND LAY CENTERED AT 18UTC OVER COASTAL ODISHA
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3º N AND LONGITUDE 86.4º E ABOUT 30KMS WEST OF PARADEEP AND
60KMS EAST OF BHUBANESWAR. THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS FOR
SOMETIME AND THEN NORTH NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 24 HRS.

ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH WEST BAY OF
BENGAL BETWEEN THE LATITUDE 17.00N TO 22.00N WEST OF LONGITUDE 92.00
E . MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 91.00C.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.7N 84.6E HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS