t02436

瘋狂了...
03Z評價100節，直衝MH，只不過風眼糊了，巔峰大概要過去了....

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Otis Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Otis's rapid intensification rate has leveled off over the
past few hours, with the small clear eye not quite as distinct as
earlier.  Still, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains well
organized.  While the 0000 UTC Dvorak estimates had subjective
values near 90 kt, a 6-hourly data-T average was 105 kt.  As a blend
of these data, the initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.  Otis is
moving over marginal SSTs now, so any further intensification is
expected to be slight.  By tomorrow night, a combination of lower
SSTs, drier air and an increase in southerly shear is forecast to
cause a significant weakening of Otis.  Almost all of the guidance
show rapid weakening by early Tuesday, and this is the solution
provided in the new NHC wind speed prediction.  Global models
suggest Otis will lose organized deep convection within about 3
days, so the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at
that time.

Otis is moving faster to the north, now at 7 kt.  The hurricane
should take a sharp westward turn in about 24 hours as it runs
into a building ridge over the eastern Pacific, then turn
west-southwest or southwest under that ridge.  Very little change
was made to the previous forecast, which lies between the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 18.0N 127.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

t02436

爆發增強，也急速減弱，15Z已經降為TS，準備轉向南下。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181445
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Otis is weakening at a remarkable rate.  Only 12 hours ago, the
cyclone had an eye, but now most of the deep convection has
dissipated entirely. The cloud pattern now only supports an
intensity of about 45 kt, but Dvorak intensity estimates are
constrained to higher values by the rules of the technique.  Given
the small size of Otis, it seems possible that this is a rare case
where the intensity is dropping faster than the Dvorak
technique allows.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt,
but it is possible that Otis is even weaker than this.  Continued
rapid weakening is expected, and most of the dynamical models show
Otis becoming a remnant low within about 36 h.  The GFS and ECMWF
maintain a weak surface low for another couple days after that, but
suggest it will dissipate entirely shortly after 96 h.

Otis has continued to move northward over the past 6 hours, but
it appears to be slowing down.  As the circulation becomes shallower
over the next 12 to 24 hours, Otis will be increasingly steered by
the low-level northeasterly flow associated with a ridge over the
central Pacific.  This should cause the cyclone to make a sharp turn
toward the southwest later today or early tomorrow morning.  Little
change has been made to the track forecast, which is close to an
average of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 19.0N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  19/1200Z 19.3N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  20/0000Z 18.7N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  20/1200Z 17.8N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  21/1200Z 16.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  22/1200Z 14.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky