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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-9-4 14:18 編輯
JTWC 05Z發佈TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 040530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 130.1E TO 19.4N 122.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 128.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 28 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 128.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY
460 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION MOSTLY
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 040104Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
LLCC, WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING DIRECTLY INTO THE LLCC AND
LOW LEVEL BANDING CLEARLY VISIBLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
STORM CURRENTLY IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER IT WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
LATER TAUS. MODELS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050530Z.//
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