97W Low 與99W互動密切

周子堯@FB · 2017-8-23 10:08

本帖最後由周子堯@FB 於 2017-9-16 14:39 編輯

基本資料
編號 : 97 W
擾動編號日期：2017 年 08 月 23 日 10 時
撤編日期　　：2017 年 08 月 26 日 10 時
97W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-7.0N-166.0E
20170822.2350.himawari8.x.vis2km.97WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-70N-1660E.100pc.jpg

20170822.2350.himawari8.x.vis2km.97WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-70N-1660E.100pc.jpg

周子堯@FB · 2017-8-24 10:47

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.1N 168.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1025 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. A 232252 METOP-A MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

周子堯@FB · 2017-8-25 08:14

JTWC 23Z評級Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 165.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY
605 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PERSISTING
NEAR THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE DIVIDED, NAVGEM SHOWING A
NORTHWARD TRACK AND STRONG INTENSIFICATION, UKMET SHOWING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND LESS INTENSIFICATION, AND GFS AND ECMWF NOT
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION OR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.