blackcat

這位子的TC老J向來都處理得很消極
副熱帶性質邊緣但螺旋性一定都很好
目前來看就算不小心升格了也是曇花一現
反而他右邊的97W比較有看頭

周子堯@FB

JTWC升評為Meduum

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 200530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 160.0E TO 29.8N 154.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N
159.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.3N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 159.6E, APPROXIMATELY
1140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INO THE CENTER. A 192318Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED LLCC. A 192232Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH ISOLATED 30-KNOT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTER PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES 29 TO 30C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM RETAINS SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, IT APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING
TO A TROPICAL, WARM-CORE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS,
HOWEVER, SOME CONSOLIDATION APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210530Z.//
NNNN

Meow

稍後很可能命名奧鹿。

currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2.5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2
finalTNumberType:        2

Meow

初報預測大迴轉

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 27.7N 158.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 158.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 28.3N 156.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 28.7N 154.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 29.2N 153.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 29.6N 152.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 29.5N 151.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 28.2N 153.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 26.9N 155.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 157.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1044 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
//
NNNN

W環

這區的海溫幾高的，有利空氣上升增強