t02436

評級提升到Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.9S 145.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 145.0W, APPROXIMATELY
315NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, FRENCH POLYNESIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 171214Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG
DIFFLUENCE FUELING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS). THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TRANSITIONS TO A FULLY
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

kibishi0515

衛星雲圖分析公報

TPPS11 PGTW 171503

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90P (SE OF TAHITI)

B. 17/1425Z

C. 21.80S

D. 144.47W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   17/1214Z  21.88S  144.53W  SSMI


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