ben811018

環境太過惡劣~要順利發展起來很難...繼續由南海的高壓單體導引，即將進入南海南部，朝中南半島前進

s6815711

JTWC對01W發佈FW 首颱需要再等等

t02436

JMA 00Z 降格LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 121E ALMOST STATIONARY.

t02436

然而 00Z又再度降格LPA。

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 118E WEST 10 KT.

t02436

06Z 又重回TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 10N 115E WEST 10 KT.

t02436

JTWC 15Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST OF HO-CHI-MINH CITY,
VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131123Z
MHS NOAA-18 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE FRAGMENTED BANDING AND
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION NORTH OF A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SURROUNDED BY
HIGHER VALUES IN ALL QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE OVERALL IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

17Z立刻提升評級制Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 111.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY
310NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131123Z
NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BUT
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC SHOW 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR
1005MB. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS, AND SST VALUES OF 27-28C. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK, GENERALLY TOWARD THE
COAST OF VIETNAM, OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JMA持續維持TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY.

s6815711

01Z已提升至High

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 111.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY
260NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 132249Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE WEST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS, AND SST VALUES OF 27-28C.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE
COAST OF VIETNAM, OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.