0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：95 C
擾動編號日期：2016 年 10 月 13 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 10 月 00 日 00 時
95C.INVEST.25kts.1008mb.10N.167W

CPHC:20%

1. An area of low pressure, located about 915 miles southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii, continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, will be slow to occur as it
moves westward near 15 mph over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent

t02436

CPHC調升展望至50%

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180:
1. Showers and thunderstorms to an area of low pressure, located
1270 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, have become better
organized in the past several hours. If this trend continues...a
tropical depression may form later today. The system is moving
west at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

快速西移中，GFS預測明天就會進到西太

t02436

JMA已經在天氣圖上標示為TD


但CPHC逐漸降低發展機率，認為不會在中太發展

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located 1450 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii, or
1025 miles south of Midway, have become less organized during the
day. The system is also moving into an area of less favorable
conditions as it approaches the International Dateline. The
system is moving west at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent

中心目前是裸的，已經跑到179W，中午過後就會進入西太

t02436

進入西太，JMA 06Z正式列於報文之中。

1. An area of low pressure about 1500 miles west-southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii, is moving west near 20 mph. The system is moving
into an area with less favorable conditions for development as it
approaches the international date line. This will be the final
outlook on this feature by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Further information on the area will be provided by RSMC Tokyo
and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 180E WEST 15 KT.