簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2016-8-31 20:38
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WTPN21 PGTW 310930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N 124.0E TO 25.1N 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.4N 124.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.4N 123.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY
180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.
A 310611Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CURVED
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010930Z.//
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