簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2016-7-29 15:46
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WTPN21 PGTW 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 127.7E TO 15.9N 125.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 290100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9N 127.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.5E, APPROXIMATELY
765 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 282306Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BAND
OF HEAVY CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, WITH A
SMALLER AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD, INDICATIVE OF
THE DEEPENING LLCC. DESPITE THE HEAVY CONVECTION, CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA DEPICT MOSTLY LIGHT (5-10 KNOT)
WINDS, WITH MSLP BETWEEN 1006 TO 1007 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY
FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL BROAD AT THIS TIME, THE MSI IS
SHOWING SIGNS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE IS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING. THE
LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARD TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND
MODEL INDICATED DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300130Z.
//
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