TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a large
portion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It
appears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain,
but, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also
confirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area. I prefer
to keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and
then adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane
checks the system later today. Little change in intensity is
expected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight.
The cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high
terrain of southern Mexico.
The circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt.
A westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until
landfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance,
and the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one.
The main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a
large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the
combination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre
over the area enhances the rainfall potential. The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain
were measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours.
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016
The convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both
conventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last
reconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial
intensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl
should begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and
continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could
degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little
faster than currently forecast, which would cause greater
interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico.
Earl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general
motion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is
expected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and
Alvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track
is similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of
the consensus model, TVCN.
The main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that
could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of
Central America and southeastern Mexico. The Mexican Weather
Service (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals
of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning
across portions of south-central Mexico.
