簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2016-7-2 14:44
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TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 020630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7N 144.5E TO 9.5N 142.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 020220Z GCOM
36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE A CORE OF 20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WITH ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS WELL
TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030630Z.//
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