Alexchow

沒有撤編 結構有改善 似乎可以評價Low
但風場太亂 發展有困難

asus5635

他已經在CWB天氣圖出現了喔~~


HKO倒是認為他是槽線




中國還把他跟颱風一樣畫了路徑預測XD

asus5635

JMA升格為TD了~~

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 114E NW 10 KT.

ben811018

【同步升格！南海熱帶性低氣壓９０Ｗ】
南海擾動９０Ｗ悄悄重新定位，各國氣象單位今天上午同步升格為熱帶性低氣壓，未來是否有進一步發展值得觀察（雖然不高）。
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９０Ｗ雖然有水氣支援，但型態相當不對稱（南強北弱），在太平洋高氣壓導引下，明後天朝向海南島至廣東一帶接近，對台灣不會有直接影響，但外圍水氣有機會朝台灣接近，明天開始午後降雨機會增加。

愚輝

HKO在最新的9天預報(11:30)出現以下描述:"現 時 位 於 南 海 中 至 北 部 的 低 壓 槽 會 逐 漸 移 近 華 南 沿 岸 ， 並 有 機 會 轉 為 季 風 低 壓 ", 並把27/5的預測風力由離岸5級升至離岸6級,似乎HKO亦認同90W的發展趨勢,雖然離90W的登陸只有不足兩天,但因近年的熱帶氣旋每每發展極為迅速,而目前南海北部的發展條件不俗,且看90W能否令HKO把其升格,並因而發出今年首個1號戒備信號。

ben811018

聯合颱風警報中心（ＪＴＷＣ，美軍）已針對熱帶性低氣壓９０Ｗ發出ＴＣＦＡ熱帶氣旋形成警報。
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由於中心定位調整的關係，預測路徑略往東修正，以目前資料研判，將趨向港澳一帶機率最高，至於是否還有調整空間，值得進一步觀察。

asus5635

WTPN21 PGTW 260500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 114.6E TO 22.3N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260146Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 114.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9 N
114.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEPENING CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS FORMING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INCREASE IN BROAD CIRCULATION
EXHIBITS AN IMPROVING VORTICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
(10-15 KNOTS). A 260146Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS IDENTIFIES THE WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION, AND ALSO SHOWS 20 KNOT WIND BARBS DISPLAYED IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON RECENT CONSOLIDATION AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270500Z.
//
NNNN