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yuloucn|2011-2-9 21:33
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法国气象局的报文：
ZCZC 821
WTIO30 FMEE 091241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/5/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (05-20102011)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 55.1E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 100
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/10 00 UTC: 13.9S/54.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
24H: 2011/02/10 12 UTC: 14.1S/54.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
36H: 2011/02/11 00 UTC: 14.4S/54.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2011/02/11 12 UTC: 14.8S/54.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/12 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2011/02/12 12 UTC: 15.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 12/02/2011 12 UTC: 17.8S/53.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
120H: 12/02/2011 12 UTC: 20.5S/51.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
DESPITE AN UNFAVOURABLE DIURNAL CYCLE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME RECENT STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION.
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS ... CONSEQUENTLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATE IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT (FRIDAY NIGHT), UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWER SHEAR UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AN
D GOOD OUTFLOW SPECIALLY POLEWARDS. THEREFORE, A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION
RATE IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TOMORROW A DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM AROUND 50E AND GENERATE A STRONG WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL POLEWARDS TURN AND
A SLOW DOWN OF THE TRA
CK. LATEST MODELS FROM 00Z AGREE WITH THIS SOUTHWARDS TURN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AT LONGER RANGE, SOME MODELS LIKE UKMO SHOW A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND OTHER MODELS LIKE THE VERY LAST ECMWF
SHOW NOW A SOUTHWARDS
TRACK ...
PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE TRACKS ...
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREGNES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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