J18

EC和GFS比起來相對合理些
EC預測巔峰在14日 強度來到59m/s!

zjk369

預測比狄普還要低 將會成為史上最強颱風 2015年全球最強颱風

krichard2011

這絕對是我觀察GFS以來
所看過預測最扯的... 859 hPa (不過也可能因為地形導致數據的誤差
近中心最大風速高達 逼近120KT
並且將以這個強度橫掃萬那杜一帶
目前對流也有開始集中的趨勢
附近海溫也高達30度C以上 水氣源源不絕
未來發展必定相當劇烈

t02436

補充Low報文

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2S 171.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 615 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI FIJI OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION,
HOWEVER A 052228Z ASCAT PASS DOES REVEAL A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET
BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS SHOWN IN THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEYOND TAU 96. FOR THIS REASON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB.

21Z提升至Medium

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S
171.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 169.2E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING IN
TOWARDS A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 061733Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A POINT
SOURCE PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING BEYOND TAUS
48 TO 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

J18

Meow 發表於 2015-3-6 04:05
預測暖心相當深厚，也少見在熱帶氣旋預測看到紫色圓圈。接近新喀里多尼亞之前洋面都在 29 度以上，甚至前期 ...

不好意思，上面那張圖要如何看?

Meow

斐濟氣象局編熱帶擾動 11F，預期兩天內命名機會低到中。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 06/0912 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE[999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 07.1S
166.2E AT 060600UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR MTSAT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.

SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING THE
SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Meow

這圖比巔峰還驚悚……新喀里多尼亞世紀天災。

Meow

一般來說巔峰會在 GFS 分析暖心最強的時候，而非預測氣壓最低的時候。按照預測，暖心最強的時候在當地時間 12 日下午或之前，差不多在 16.5S 附近，應該就是巔峰的時候了。預測氣壓最低時已經在新喀里多尼亞附近，可能環流變大但已減弱一些。