17P.Pam 南太平洋論風速之新風王幾乎癱瘓萬那杜全國

krichard2011 · 2015-3-11 21:49

高層眼差不多快好了
目前正在清空中
但有點不解為何在這麼強的風切環境下
還有辦法穩定增強甚至上看C5 斐濟C5以上?

zjk369 · 2015-3-11 14:33

本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2015-3-11 22:59 編輯

11日預報 JTMC上望145KT預測最強熱帶氣

krichard2011 · 2015-3-11 10:22

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-3-11 10:23 編輯

可見光雲圖風眼疑似已隱約可見
稍早底層眼牆大致即將完成
沒意外的話今天應該有機會開啟風眼
不過附近風切不知怎麼的似乎有點大
眼牆無法順利整合似乎跟風切也有關係
但FMS上看 100 KT

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 11/0131 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 958HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S
169.7E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                     AND WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WITH EYE DISCERNABLE ON MTSAT
VIS IMAGERY IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD PATTERN, LLCC EMBD IN
B, YEILDS DT=5.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 12.0S 169.7E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 13.1S 169.8E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.7S 169.9E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 16.7S 169.9E MOV S AT 06KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110800 UTC.

zjk369 · 2015-3-11 08:40

本帖最後由 zjk369 於 2015-3-11 08:50 編輯

Meow · 2015-3-10 22:15

不僅斐濟升到強烈熱帶氣旋，JTWC 更預期多年來南太平洋第一個達到 140kt 的風暴。

CX723-A330 · 2015-3-10 21:41

krichard2011 發表於 2015-3-10 17:30
現在大致明顯的正在建立眼牆了
與稍早底層稍鬆散的結構算是有相當大的進步
快速增強的階段應該不遠了

破了...
還是要等等

krichard2011 · 2015-3-10 17:30

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2015-3-10 17:32 編輯

現在大致明顯的正在建立眼牆了
與稍早底層稍鬆散的結構算是有相當大的進步
快速增強的階段應該不遠了

t02436 · 2015-3-10 14:15

JTWC 00Z 升C1
上望130Kts

FMS升澳式C2
36小時內升三級強烈熱帶氣旋

** WTPS01 NFFN 100000 ***
HURRICANE WARNING 013  ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 10/0101 UTC 2015
UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7
SOUTH 170.4 EAST AT 100000 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 9.7S 170.4E AT 100000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
65 KNOTS BY 101800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 10.1S 170.8E AT 101200 UTC
            AND NEAR 10.7S 171.2E AT 110000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 011.

** WTPS11 NFFN 100000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 10/0145 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 170.4E AT
100000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50
KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 030 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND
                        WITHIN 090 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND
                        WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND
                        WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING AROUND SUPPOSE LLCC. CONVECTION REMAINS PESISTENT WITH CLOUD
TOPS COOLING AND INCREASING IN RADIAL EXTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 300HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREES. THUS,
YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 10.1S 170.8E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 10.7S 171.2E MOV SE AT 03KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 11.6S 171.6E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 13.0S 171.8E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 100800 UTC.