jwpk9899

升格08S
上看110kt

t02436

TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
94.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 081731Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 081455Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT GREATER THAN
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

升評Medium
GFS支持發展

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
106.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 104.8E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 070101Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A CUSP
FEATURE. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE AT GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

新細明體

JTWC: LOW

我總覺得最近JTWC突然變得很勤力
這麼快就發評級了 = =

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1S 106.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH IMPROVING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.