Ex-TC Teratai (05U) was located near 10.8S 106.8E at 2pm AWST Tuesday, about 130 km east southeast of Christmas Island, and is moving southeast.
The environment is generally unfavourable for development however we may see some fluctuations in the intensity of the system at times. There still remains Low Risk of 05U re-developing into a cyclone from Wednesday.
The system will begin to track southwards during Wednesday moving over opens waters away from Christmas Island. Heavy falls likely around Christmas Island, see [http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/christmas-island.shtml] for details.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
WTXS21 PGTW 062230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 02S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 105.5E TO 11.8S 106.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 105.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 02S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 105.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 39NM
NORTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. AFTER BOOMERANGING AROUND THE INDIAN
OCEAN, THE REMNANTS OF 02S (TERATIA) HAVE MADE A COMEBACK. AN AMSR2
89HZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A FLOURISHING CONVECTIVE CENTER OVER A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS A SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BULK OF THE FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 C) AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS,
SPECIFICALLY NAVGEM AND GFS, CALL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO THE
35KT WARNING THRESHOLD, BUT DO NOT INTENSIFY IT MUCH FURTHER.
OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND WARNING CRITERIA, METAPHORICALLY
SPEAKING,IT'S A FLASH IN A PAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072230Z.
//
NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 02S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 100.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 105.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 83 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 061122Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE FLARING CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TC 02S WILL TRACK EASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS NAVGEM, GFS AND CMC, ALONG
WITH A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH ECMWF AND GFS, AGREE
THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02S MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER MAKING THE SWING
TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
Ex-TC Teratai (05U) is weak and was located near 7.4S 98.4E at 11am AWST Sunday, about 870 km west northwest of Christmas Island, and is starting to track to the east.
The environment is generally unfavourable for development however we may see some fluctuations in the intensity of the system at times. There is a Low Risk of 05U re-developing into a cyclone from Tuesday, and may move within the vicinity of Christmas Island and produce a period of heavy rainfall and squally winds. Refer to [http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/christmas-island.shtml] for further details.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
ABIO10 PGTW 050200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050200Z-051800ZDEC2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040751ZDEC2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 04DEC21 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 040900) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 02S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 7.4S 98.3E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS
ISLANDS. A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEAL 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET
BY VERY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48-72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER
THEY ARE SPLIT ON INTENSIFICATION WITH NAVGEM, GFS AND CFC BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1). AS A
LOW. //
NNNN
Ex-TC Teratai (05U) was located near 8.9S 98.5E at 12pm AWST Friday, about 410 km north northeast of Cocos Island, and moving west northwest around 12 km/h.
It will most likely track west or northwest over the next few days (likely to be north of the region). The environment is generally unfavourable, and even though we may see some fluctuations at times of the intensity of the system it is most likely to be a weak system. 05U is unlikely to reintensify into a tropical cyclone in the Western Region during the forecast period.
05U is not expected to have any direct impact on Christmas Island or the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
