簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2021-5-26 04:33
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JTWC21Z報預測已達顛峰,即將於+12H後登陸印度
WTIO31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 87.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 87.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.5N 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.5N 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.6N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 87.6E.
25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MAINTAINED
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEGREE OF WRAP, ALBEIT WITH EARLY
SIGNS OF DECAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP,
INDIA AND IN THE 251745Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65KTS WHICH IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE HEDGING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55KTS), THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.7 (59KTS), THE SATELLITE
CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 61KTS, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B IS
NOW UNDER AN AREA OF WEAKER OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE
STORM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND. THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET BY WARM (30-31
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02B WILL REMAIN AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY
OF 65KTS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AT ABOUT TAU 12,
TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ESTUARY OF
BUDHABALANGA RIVER, INDIA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD OF 15NM AT TAU 12, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
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