(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 169.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 169.7E, APPROXIMATELY
354 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100245Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LITTLE TO NO
DEEP CONVECTION. INVEST 91P IS CURRENTLY IN AN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT BEGINS
FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 90P TO ITS WEST, EVENTUALLY BEING
ABSORBED; HOWEVER, GFS IS RESOLVING INVEST 91P AS THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION, INTENSIFYING IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
