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05P.Yasa 南太史上次強氣旋 登陸斐濟

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-15 04:57 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS亦做出將直襲斐濟的路徑預測
65654 (3).gif 65662 (2).gif
05P_gefs_latest (1).png YASA (1).png
20201214.2010.goes-17.vis.2km.05P.YASA.70kts.978mb.15.4S.172.1E.pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-15 04:02 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS判定18Z升格澳式C3,並上望+48H澳式C5
JTWC新報預測其後期將直襲斐濟
HURRICANE WARNING 043 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 141915 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 966HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3 SOUTH 172.0
EAST AT 141800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.3S 172.0E at 141800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
150600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 172.2E AT 150600 UTC
AND NEAR 14.8S 172.8E AT 151800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 041.

#!001_MicrosoftEdge_User_Default_WebNotes_Microsoft-Edge-Web-Notes-Fiji-Mete6571812.jpg sh0521.gif
20201214.1403.npp.882bt.05P.YASA.65kts.983mb.15.6S.171.6E.100pc.jpg 20201214.1403.npp.183bt.05P.YASA.65kts.983mb.15.6S.171.6E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-15 03:25 | 顯示全部樓層
底層風眼隱現,隱隱約約已經可見開眼之勢

20201214.1830.goes-17.ir.05P.YASA.70kts.978mb.15.4S.172.1E.100pc.jpg 20201214.1553.f15.85rgb.05P.YASA.65kts.983mb.15.6S.171.6E.050pc.jpg
20201214.1553.f15.85h.05P.YASA.65kts.983mb.15.6S.171.6E.050pc.jpg 20201214.1553.f15.85hw.05P.YASA.65kts.983mb.15.6S.171.6E.050pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-14 16:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格C1,FMS澳式C2
05P YASA 201214 0600 15.8S 171.7E SHEM 65 981
HURRICANE WARNING 039 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 140734 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 SOUTH 171.5
EAST AT 140600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.9S 171.5E at 140600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT 2 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
150600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.7S 171.2E AT 141800 UTC
AND NEAR 15.3S 171.2E AT 150600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 037.

65654 (2).gif 65662 (1).gif
20201214.0730.himawari-8.ir.05P.YASA.65kts.981mb.15.8S.171.7E.100pc.jpg 20201214.0220.gw1.89pct89h89v.05P.YASA.60kts.987mb.15.8S.171.9E.91pc.jpg
YASA.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-13 22:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-12-14 03:16 編輯

FMS升格澳式C1,命名Yasa
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 131403 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 172.3E AT
131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC WITH OVERALL ORGANISATION
IMPROVING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN, WITH 0.60 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM IN NORTHWARD TRACK AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 16.3S 171.7E MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 16.2S 171.2E MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 15.7S 170.8E MOV W AT 02 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 15.2S 170.8E MOV WNW 02 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON YASA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
132000 UTC OR EARLIER.

65654 (1).gif
8E6177AB5F58E8F995FE890643487362.gif 20201213.1840.himawari-8.vis.05P.YASA.45kts.995mb.15.5S.172.6E.100pc.jpg 20201213.1250.gpm.89pct89h89v.05P.FIVE.45kts.989mb.15.5S.172.2E.055pc.jpg LATEST (32).jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-13 00:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC首報上望110節,05P後期強度被機構及數值普遍看好
sh0521.gif 05P_121200sair.jpg
05P_tracks_latest.png 05P_gefs_latest.png
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_swpac_7.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2020-12-12 21:44 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-12-12 23:31 編輯

JTWC定強已反超04P,將併吞04P
04P FOUR 201212 1200 15.7S 173.1E SHEM 30 1002
05P FIVE 201212 1200 13.7S 172.9E SHEM 35 1000

20201212.125000.SH052021.ahi.himawari8.Infrared-Gray.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg 20201212.125000.SH052021.ahi.himawari8.WV.35kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
goes17_ir_05P_202012121045.gif 91P_gefs_latest (2).png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2020-12-12 21:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2020-12-12 22:50 編輯

JTWC升格TS,編號05P
05P FIVE 201212 1200 13.7S 172.9E SHEM 35 1000
首報上望110KT!!
WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 172.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 172.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 14.7S 172.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 15.3S 172.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 15.6S 171.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 15.8S 171.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 16.1S 171.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.5S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 18.4S 174.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 172.9E.
12DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
413 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR
LOOP AS WELL AS THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN
A 120958Z AMSU COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE 35 KTS WINDS PRESENT IN
DATA FROM A 120844Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE WIND FIELD PRESENT IN THE
ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS BROAD
AND ALSO CONSTRAINS THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 05P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT
OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION
(DCI) WITH TC 04P WHICH LIES 115 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS RESULTS
IN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
AS NUMERICAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO CONVERGE ON A COHERENT SOLUTION.
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TC 05P WILL
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
CURRENT CAPTURE AND SUBSEQUENT MERGER PHASE OF DCI THROUGH TAU 72.
DURING THIS TIME, A REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING STR WILL TAKE
PLACE DUE TO AN INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH PROPAGATES FROM
THE WEST. AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE EAST, IT WILL
BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF
MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS CHANGE IN STORM MOTION WILL
OCCUR AT TAU 72, HOWEVER THE GALWEM MODEL PROVIDES A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 96 WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK MOTION
THEREAFTER. ULTIMATELY, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48, WHEREUPON IT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH
TAU 72 DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND REPOSITIONING OF THE STR.
THEREAFTER TC 05P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE
FINAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 120. THE DYNAMIC
NATURE OF THE BINARY INTERACTION, COUPLED WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF
THE STEERING RIDGE, RESULTS IN A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK
SOLUTIONS WITH A MAXIMUM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 280 NM BY TAU 120.
THIS HIGH SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED EAST OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE AFUM TRACK WHICH BRINGS THE VORTEX FARTHER
WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.//
NNNN
fa12ad345982b2b7cf7cd38026adcbef77099b6d.jpg.gif
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