老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z升格C5,定強140節，中心氣壓914百帕

05P YASA 201216 0000 14.6S 174.1E SHEM 140 914

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21Z新報上望+12H內C5
FMS新報則認為Yasa72H內將維持澳式C5

FKPS02 NFFN 151857
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20201215 /1800Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: YASA
ADVISORY NR: 2020/9
OBS PSN: 15/1800Z S1442 E17330
CB: WI 180NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL510
MOV: ENE 04KT
C: 917HPA
MAX WIND: 120KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 16/0000 S1442 E17354
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 120KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 16/0600 S1454 E17430
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 125KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 16/1200 S1506 E17506
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 125KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 16/1800 S1530 E17554
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 125KT
NXT MSG: 20201216 /0100Z

老農民版夜神月

FMS18Z則繼續提升Yasa的定強至120KT

HURRICANE WARNING 051 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 151915 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 917HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 SOUTH 173.5
EAST AT 151800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 173.5E at 151800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.9S 174.5E AT 160600 UTC
AND NEAR 15.5S 175.9E AT 161800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 049.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC,SSD18Z德法分析俱T7.0,JTWC18Z一舉提升其強度至135KT

05P YASA 201215 1800 14.8S 173.5E SHEM 135 919

PPS12 PGTW 151851

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU)

B. 15/1800Z

C. 19.78S

D. 171.37W

E. FIVE/GOES17

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1255Z 19.38S 172.10W ATMS
15/1345Z 19.53S 172.10W ATMS
15/1604Z 19.67S 171.67W SSMS


ELIAS

TXPS26 KNES 151839
TCSWSP

A. 05P (YASA)

B. 15/1730Z

C. 14.7S

D. 173.5E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. WMG
EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A DT OF 7.0 INCLUDING
+1.0 EYE-ADJ. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...JLEVINE

krichard2011

風眼正式清空至WMG
眼溫上升至14.4℃
穩定增強中~

krichard2011

FMS升格澳式五級強烈熱帶氣旋
目前上看 120KT

1. HURRICANE WARNING 049 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 151427 UTC.
   
2. 
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 929HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8 SOUTH 173.1
   
4. EAST AT 151200 UTC.
   
5. POSITION GOOD.
   
6. REPEAT POSITION 14.8S 173.1E at 151200 UTC.
   
7. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
   
8. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 120 KNOTS
   
9. BY 161200 UTC.

複製代碼

1. FKPS02 NFFN 151332
   
2. TC ADVISORY
   
3. DTG:                 20201215/1200Z
   
4. TCAC:                NFFN
   
5. TC:                  YASA
   
6. ADVISORY NR:         2020/8
   
7. OBS PSN:             15/1200Z S1448 E17306
   
8. CB:                  WI 180NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL510
   
9. MOV:                 SLW
   
10. C:                   929HPA
    
11. MAX WIND:            110KT
    
12. FCST PSN +6HR:       15/1800 S1442 E17318
    
13. FCST MAX WIND +6HR:  110KT
    
14. FCST PSN +12HR:      16/0000 S1448 E17342
    
15. FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 110KT
    
16. FCST PSN +18HR:      16/0600 S1448 E17412
    
17. FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 115KT
    
18. FCST PSN +24HR:      16/1200 S1506 E17454
    
19. FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 120KT
    
20. NXT MSG:             20201215/1900Z

複製代碼

老農民版夜神月

風眼開啓，JTWC06Z升格C3,定強105節

05P YASA 201215 0600 14.9S 173.0E SHEM 105 949

dom

目前強度已達到澳式C4，上望澳式C5，不排除以巔峰強度直撲斐濟

05P YASA 201215 0000 15.0S 172.4E SHEM 85 968

FKPS02 NFFN 150052
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20201215/0000Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: YASA
ADVISORY NR: 2020/7
OBS PSN: 15/0000Z S1500 E17242
CB: WI 180NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL510
MOV: ENE 07KT
C: 956HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 15/0600 S1448 E17248
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 95KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 15/1200 S1442 E17300
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 15/1800 S1430 E17312
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 100KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 16/0000 S1436 E17342
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 105KT
NXT MSG: 20201215/0700Z

ADT 0230Z認為中心眼溫0.4C，T值也分析到5.5，JTWC上望C4(115節)

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.0

Current Intensity Analysis



                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      
                    ADT-Version 9.0               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  15 DEC 2020    Time :   023000 UTC
      Lat :   15:01:12 S     Lon :  172:43:12 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.8 / 970.4mb/ 84.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.8     5.8     6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp :  +0.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : EYE  

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC  
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :  113nmi
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1008mb

Satellite Name :   HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.6 degrees