老農民版夜神月

FMS判定Yasa於18Z已成後熱帶氣旋

GALE WARNING 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 191244 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7 SOUTH 179.4
WEST AT 191200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.7S 179.4W AT 191200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS BY
200000UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 190 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 070 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 23.7S 179.8W AT 200000 UTC
AND NEAR 24.6S 179.4E AT 201200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 071.

Gale Warning 072 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 192003 UTC.

FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 22.9S 177.9W AT
191800UTC. FORMER TC YASA MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. POSITION
GOOD.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF FORMER
TC YASA CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 071.

老農民版夜神月

逐漸南下，將在兩日內轉化，這個南太平洋官方定強次強氣旋終將逐漸走向終點

STORM WARNING 069 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 181921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3 SOUTH 176.8
WEST AT 181800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.3S 176.8W at 181800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS AT
191200UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 125 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.5S 177.5W AT 190600 UTC
AND NEAR 23.1S 178.2W AT 191800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 068.

老農民版夜神月

逐漸減弱,FMS18Z定強降至澳式C4,105KT
JTWC18Z降至C2,95KT

HURRICANE WARNING 065 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 171921 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 920HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0
SOUTH 179.0 WEST AT 171800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 18.0S 179.0W at 171800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.3S 177.6W AT 186000 UTC
AND NEAR 20.6S 176.6W AT 181800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 064.

05P YASA 201217 1800 17.6S 179.5W SHEM 95 959

dom

Yasa約在今天08Z前後以澳5姿態登陸斐濟，JTWC16/00Z評價140KT創下南太開季最早C5，比ZOE還早了11天!!
補16/00Z圖

krichard2011

即將登陸登陸瓦努阿島
結構受到斐濟地形的影響
有略為減弱的趨勢

老農民版夜神月

FMS18Z持續提升定強至10分鐘135KT,中心氣壓899百帕

FKPS02 NFFN 161851
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20201216/1800Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: YASA
ADVISORY NR: 2020/15
OBS PSN: 16/1800Z S1530 E17642
CB: WI 200NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530
MOV: ESE 11KT
C: 899HPA
MAX WIND: 135KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 17/0000 S1600 E17730
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 130KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 17/0600 S1636 E17824
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 130KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 17/1200 S1712 E17912
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 125KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 17/1800 S1800 E17948
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 120KT
NXT MSG: 20201217/0100Z

HURRICANE WARNING 059 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 161858 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 899HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5
SOUTH 176.7 EAST AT 161800 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 15.5S 176.7E at 161800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 135 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.6S 178.4E AT 170600 UTC
AND NEAR 18.0S 179.8E AT 171800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 057.

krichard2011

FMS 評價 T7.5 130KT
JTWC 維持 140KT
眼牆已逐漸進入斐濟氣象雷達的掃瞄範圍

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 161529 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 906HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
175.6E AT 161200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 130 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING CONTINUES TO PERSIST WITH A
WELL DEFINED EYE. ORGANISATION GOOD. TC YASA LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. YASA IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARD-SOUTHEASTWARDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUITORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
WMG EYE PATTERN WITH A B SURROUND YIELDING E#5.5, EYE ADJ=+1.0,
BF=1.0 GIVING DT OF 7.5. MET 7.5 AND PT 6.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS,
YIELDING T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 16.1S 177.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 130
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.4S 178.6E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 120
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 18.9S 179.7E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 20.3S 179.6W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON YASA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
152030 UTC.

krichard2011

來分享一張向日葵八號衛星拍到的巔峰真實色彩影像
明後兩天將強勢直撲斐濟
上次有這麼強的熱帶氣旋侵襲斐濟
印象中應該是2016年的 Winston
不過Winston強度上來說又是另一個 Level 了